Should I build a business assuming AGI arrives soon in 2026?
Don't bet the company on a specific AGI timeline; plan across scenarios. Whether transformative AI arrives in 2, 5, or 15 years, the resilient strategy is the same: build moats that survive even if foundation models become a cheap commodity. Those moats are proprietary data, network effects, brand and trust, distribution, and regulatory or relationship advantages. Use AI as leverage today, but make sure your value isn't just 'we call an LLM,' which anyone can replicate.
Plan in scenarios, not predictions. Sketch three futures: transformative AI in roughly 2 years, in 5, and in 15. In the near case, speed and distribution matter most; in the far case, durable fundamentals win. The point isn't to guess right, it's to choose strategies that hold up across all three so you're not wiped out by either fast progress or a plateau. Avoid plans that only work if AGI arrives exactly when you hope.
Build value that commoditization can't erase. If foundation models get cheaper and better, thin 'GPT wrapper' businesses lose their edge. Defensible moats include: proprietary or hard-to-collect data, network effects where each user makes the product better, a trusted brand in a high-stakes niche, owned distribution and customer relationships, and integration into workflows with high switching costs. These survive even when raw AI capability is abundant.
Audit your model for AGI-era resilience. Ask: if AI could do the core task for free tomorrow, what would still make customers pay you? If the honest answer is 'nothing,' shift toward owning data, distribution, trust, or relationships. Use today's AI to move fast and serve customers better, but anchor the business in advantages that compound regardless of how the technology evolves. Resilience comes from moats, not from timing the singularity.
Prompts to try
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Compare 3 strategic scenarios (AGI in 2 yrs / 5 yrs / 15 yrs) and how to plan accordingly.
Design an AI business with durable value even if foundation models commoditize.
Identify business moats (data, network, brand, distribution) that survive AGI.
Audit my business model [describe] for AGI-era resilience and recommend changes.